United States

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United States

Resilience Index — Country Analysis

đź“Š Monitoring

As of: January 2026 (monthly cadence; RIâ‚…â‚€ scale)

Current RI Score

Composite Resilience Index
33.3 / 50
Status: Monitoring Overall trajectory: ↓ Flag: Magnitude strain (RI₅₀ < 35)

The US remains a high-output operating environment with elevated noise and widening planning dispersion. The composite score reflects magnitude strain, but activation is not met under the RI criteria.

Dimensional Breakdown

Scores are 0–10 per dimension with geometric-mean aggregation to RI₅₀. Trajectory reflects directional change vs. recent baseline.

Institutional Resilience 8.4→
Stable: Core institutional capacity remains high. Operational risk comes less from baseline capability and more from episodic friction in oversight, implementation velocity, and litigation/appeals density.
Policy Volatility 5.0↑
Elevated: Policy churn remains a measurable transaction cost. Even when directionally “pro-growth,” high variance shortens planning horizons and increases pricing/contract renegotiation frequency.
Economic Shock Absorption 9.1↓
Softening: Strong buffers persist (market depth, liquidity, scale), but sensitivity to policy-driven demand swings and confidence shocks increases forecast error and raises hurdle-rate uncertainty.
Social Cohesion 4.7→
Low plateau: Lower trust raises compliance friction and event sensitivity. The operational channel is higher cost of coordination (labor, permitting, stakeholder alignment), not “headline risk.”
Information Environment 6.9→
Mixed: Data availability remains strong, but signal-to-noise challenges and narrative fragmentation increase decision latency and widen scenario ranges.
Activation Criteria Check
ALL MUST BE TRUE TO ACTIVATE
  • Criterion 1: Count of deteriorating dimensions (Traj < -0.15) — 1 / 3 required (not met)
  • Criterion 2: Policy volatility extreme (Z > 2.0 OR >p95) — NO (elevated, below crisis-spike regime)
  • Criterion 3: Magnitude strain (RIâ‚…â‚€ < 35) — YES (33.3)

Result: Monitoring status maintained. Magnitude strain present, activation not met.

Data Anchors Used (dated)

  • Institutional proxy: Freedom House “Freedom in the World” US score 84/100
  • Policy volatility proxy: US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 200.9 (Dec 2025); down from 254.1 (Aug 2025)
  • Economic: Unemployment 4.4% (Dec 2025); CPI +2.7% YoY (Dec 2025); GDP +4.4% SAAR (Q3 2025 updated); GDPNow +5.4% SAAR (Q4 2025 nowcast, Jan 26)
  • Social cohesion proxy: Edelman Trust Barometer Trust Index 47 (US, 2026)
  • Information environment proxies: Freedom on the Net 73/100 (US); RSF Press Freedom score 65.49; rank 57 (2025)

Key Observations

Quantified signals

  • Demand confidence: Consumer confidence 84.5 (Jan 2026), lowest since 2014; tariffs/politics/inflation cited as concerns
  • Labor market: “Low-hire, low-fire” conditions; unemployment 4.4% (Dec 2025) with payrolls +50k
  • Policy noise: EPU 200.9 (Dec 2025), still ~2Ă— the “100 baseline” convention despite improving vs. late summer

Strategic Implications for Clients

Contracting & CAPEX posture

  • Modular CAPEX: Prefer phased investment design and decision gates; avoid single-point, irreversible commitments where policy exposure is material
  • Repricing intervals: Shorten repricing cycles (e.g., 24–36 months vs. 5–7 years fixed assumptions) for tariff/regulatory-sensitive cost bases
  • Buffers: Increase scenario buffers for demand-softening and trade/tariff shocks; use wider bands rather than point estimates

Operating stance

  • Maintain footprint: Treat the US as high-output / higher-noise; keep exposure but hedge variance through diversified supplier/customer mixes
  • Decision latency: Build internal processes that assume higher information noise (parallel data sources, pre-approved contingencies)
  • 2026 midterm cycle: Begin budgeting and regulatory watchlist contingencies early given tight margins and election-cycle volatility

About This Analysis

All scores use the Resilience Index five-dimensional framework with geometric mean aggregation. The methodology is designed to prevent dimensional substitution and to keep focus on operational friction under uncertainty.

→ View complete mathematical methodology

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